Golf Tidbits: Where has Stuart Appleby's game gone?

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03/11/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once the top-ranked Australian in the world, Stuart Appleby has plummeted in the world rankings as his winless streak stretches into its fourth season.

Appleby owns eight PGA Tour titles, including three straight wins at the winners-only Mercedes Championships, now known as the SBS Championship. The Australian ended his run of three straight wins at that event in 2006, and later that season won the Houston Open. Since then, nothing, at least in terms of wins.

Appleby had a decent 2007 with four top-10 finishes worldwide, and two top-12 finishes in the four majors. The following season, he was off to a blazing start. After missing the cut in his first start of the '08 season, Appleby reeled off six consecutive top-10s, five of which came on the PGA Tour. But following that hot start, he posted just two more top-10s the rest of 2008.

Despite making the cut in all four majors and tying for second at the WGC- Bridgestone Invitational, he was unable to break back into the winners circle.

Last year, Appleby had five times as many missed cuts (10) as top-10 finishes, (two). Two of his missed cuts were at the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship.

Things have not gotten any better this season. Appleby has started in seven PGA Tour events and made the cut just twice. Neither time did he finish in the top 60.

He will be absent from the WGC event this week, making it three in a row that he has missed after playing in 32 straight WGC events.

With all of his struggles, Appleby has plummeted to No. 151 in the world. Not only that, but there are now 13 fellow Australians ranked ahead of Appleby in the current world rankings. His star has fallen so much that he needed to use a one-time exemption to keep his PGA Tour card this season. The exemption he used stems from him being ranked in the Top 25 on the PGA Tour's career money list.

Last year was the first time since his rookie year that he finished outside the top 125 on the money list, which is the cutoff point to keep your tour card for the next season.

Appleby's poor form also cost him a spot on the International Presidents Cup team last year, after he had played the previous five teams.

His driving distance this year has fallen more than 18 yards from his peak of 300.6 yards in 2005, and his greens in regulation stats have fallen below 60- percent for the first time since he joined the PGA Tour.

Those two stats do not tell the entire story, but hitting the ball shorter and hitting fewer greens is a recipe for higher scores and poor results.

What makes his fall from grace unusual is that there is no injury to blame. Appleby has just has just lost his game. He went so far as to joke about it on his Twitter page.

After he made the cut last week at the Honda Classic, Appleby posted this on his Twitter account, "Made the cut...Stop the press."

LOOK OUT FOR THE MOLINARI BROTHERS

Francesco and Edoardo Molinari continue to set firsts on the PGA Tour, and in the golf world in general. This week, they were ranked back-to-back in the official world golf rankings.

Edoardo, the younger of the two and the 2005 U.S. Amateur champion, was ranked 47th, less than one average point ahead of Francesco.

The world golf rankings started in 1987, so it is difficult to say they are the highest-rated brothers ever. One thing is for sure, they will be the first brother combination to play at the Masters since Jumbo and Joe Ozaki in 2000.

It will be the second trip to Augusta for Edoardo, whose U.S. Amateur victory gained him a spot in the 2006 Masters field. Francesco caddied for his brother that week, when the younger Molinari played alongside defending champion Tiger Woods for the first two rounds.

In the past few months, they have established a pair of familial firsts. In November, they became the first brothers to win the Omega Mission Hills World Cup, and in February were the first brothers to qualify for a World Golf Championship event when they both competed at the Accenture Match Play Championship.

Francesco has won once on the European Tour, while Edoardo was victorious twice last season on the European Challenge Tour. However, Edoardo is off to a better start this year with a pair of fourth-place finishes.

Including the three Ozaki brothers - who combined for over 140 wins on the Japan Golf Tour - there have been other previous outstanding brother combinations in golf. Dave and Mike Hill posted over 51 professional wins, and Lanny and Bobby Wadkins had over 20 professional wins, including Lanny's victory at the 1977 PGA Championship.

Francesco and Edoardo have plenty of time to catch these "other brothers," as they are just 27 and 29 years old, respectively.

MINI-TIDBITS

- Ryo Ishikawa was one of two players ranked in the top 50 in the world to miss last week's WGC - CA Championship. His excuse? He was at his high school graduation.

- Steve Pate, a six-time winner on the PGA Tour and two-time Ryder Cupper, became the oldest winner on the Nationwide Tour when he won the Bogota Open last week. Pate will turn 49 on May 26.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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